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Advanced · A11

What Moves the Yield Curve

Four forces that move the curve, the week the UK showed them in public, and the discipline of interpreting a move without pretending you can predict what follows it.

By the end of this module, you’ll be able to:

  • Name four forces that can move the yield curve.
  • Explain how heavier government borrowing can influence long yields and bond prices.
  • Explain bond vigilantes and fiscal dominance in plain language.
  • Trace a curve move into borrowing costs, GIC rates, bond funds or stock valuations.
  • Separate what a curve move shows from what it does not prove.

5 parts · about 40 minutes

  1. 1Four forces: expectations, and the borrower itself
  2. 2One famous week: the UK, autumn 2022, from scratch
  3. 3The labels and the fence: vigilantes, fiscal dominance, and where readings come from
  4. 4What a curve move touches: your loans, your funds, your stocks
  5. 5Interpretation, not prediction: the exercise, then What Moves the Yield Curve in one page + a quick check

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