Regime History

Methodology (v2.0)

Regime classification uses a 6-pillar diffusion index (-1 to +1). Economic Activity = (Growth × 0.65) + (Labor × 0.35). Financial Conditions = (Liquidity × 0.40) + (Risk × 0.60), with Circuit Breaker: if Liquidity < -0.25, Fin. Conditions = Liquidity. Classification waterfall: Crisis (Fin. Conditions ≤ -0.25) → Stagflation (Econ. Activity < -0.15 AND Inflation < -0.20) → Contraction (Econ. Activity ≤ -0.25) → Slowdown (Econ. Activity < 0.15) → Expansion. Inflation veto caps Econ. Activity at -0.15 when inflation severely elevated.