Signal Integrity / Market Theme
Market theme validation
Two layers of evidence: forward-looking predictive accuracy and backward-looking regime identification.
Predictive confirmation
When markets commit to a theme — not a 2-day flicker, but a sustained signal held for 10 or more consecutive trading days — we ask one question: does the economy follow? We tested every sustained signal across 18 years against real economic outcomes. The 3-month clock starts the day the signal fires — because that's when you'd act on it.
Soft landing
ProvenInflation is cooling while the economy holds up — the rarest and most prized macro outcome
13 of 13 signals confirmed at 3-month horizon
2007–2025 · 18 years · 10-day structural persistence filter
What we checked after every signal
Did unemployment stay stable?
12/12 · 100%
Did inflation come down?
10/12 · 83%
Was GDP still positive?
10/12 · 83%
2 of 3 confirming = thesis validated
13 signals tested across 18 years
Confirmation distribution
Full confirmation (2/3) — all indicators passed
Partial confirmation — threshold met, one indicator missed
Failed — 2+ indicators missed
Key insight: Every episode passed — no onset ever had 2+ indicators fail. Unemployment confirmed 100% of the time, making it the perfect anchor. The two GDP misses were Q1 GDP revisions (2014 polar vortex, 2025 Q1 contraction) — both passed on inflation and labor.