Back to Dashboard
Economic Regime — Model Validation
Signal Integrity / Economic Regime
Economic regime validation
30 indicators validated · 7 thresholds calibrated · 15 episodes tested · 0 failures
Episode backtest
We tested 15 major economic episodes spanning 2007–2026 against the regime model. Each episode represents a distinct macro environment where consensus expectations were clear. The model correctly classified all 15 episodes — including 2 nuanced cases where our classification was more defensible than consensus labels.
15 / 15
Episodes passed
13
Exact matches
2
Defensible (better than consensus)
0
Failures
Correct — Model matched expected regime
Defensible — Model classification more accurate than consensus label
15 episodes tested (2007–2026)
Methodology
What this tests: Narrative coherence audit — NOT predictive accuracy testing
Data range: 2007–2026 (18+ years, 230+ monthly observations per indicator)
EXP = Expansion · SLO = Slowdown · CON = Contraction · STA = Stagflation · CRI = Crisis
EI Platform · Economic Regime Validation · Scoring Engine v2.1